Winter Precipitation in North America and the Pacific-North America Pattern in GEOS-S2Sv2 Seasonal Hindcast

Li, Zhao ; Molod, Andrea ; Schubert, Siegfried

关键词: PACIFIC NORTHWEST (US);    WINTER;    PRECIPITATION (METEOROLOGY);    NORTH AMERICA;    METEOROLOGY;    HINDCASTING;    VARIABILITY;    PREDICTIONS;   

RP-ID  :  GSFC-E-DAA-TN51277

学科分类：地球科学(综合)

美国|英语

来源: NASA Technical Reports Server

【 摘 要 】

Reliable prediction of precipitation remains one of the most pivotal and complex challenges in seasonal forecasting. Previous studies show that various large-scale climate modes, such as ENSO, PNA and NAO play significant role in winter precipitation variability over the Northern America. The influences are most pronounced in years of strong indices of such climate modes. This study evaluates model bias, predictability and forecast skills of monthly winter precipitation in GEOS5-S2S 2.0 retrospective forecast from 1981 to 2016, with emphasis on the forecast skill of precipitation over North America during the extreme events of ENSO, PNA and NAO by applying EOF and composite analysis.