The Upper Devonian Sandstone aquifer of Fife

Marine Sciences

National Oceanography Centre

学科分类：地球科学(综合)

英国|英语

来源: NERC Open Research Archive

【 摘 要 】

Argyle International Airport is at risk from coastal and 铿倁vial 铿俹oding, especially when coarse sediments are deposited in the northernmost tunnel mouths (through which the River Yambou 铿俹ws) and constrict the carrying capacity. Building on previous research which employed a 鈥渂athtub鈥?approach to show areas of St. Vincent at risk from 铿俹oding, we use rainfall-runo铿€, inundation and storm impact models to formulate storm conditions based on Hurricane Ivan, with sea levels representative of the present-day, 2100 (+ 1.10 m) and 2500 (+ 5.48 m) under the Relative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario. Combining these with constricted tunnel 铿俹w regimes of 20-100% (representing 1-5 tunnels becoming blocked), we assess the risk of 铿俹oding to the runway and the rear access road.We 铿乶d that the Airport鈥檚 drainage system adjacent to the runway copes reasonably well with the applied 铿俹od conditions. In presentday and 2100 sea-level scenarios with 铿俹w constrictions of鈮?0%, only the northern Runway End Safety Area (RESA) is 铿俹oded. However this 铿俹oding may be su铿僣ient to render the RESA incompliant with International Civil Aviation Organisation regulations by reducing its e铿€ective width. The greater and more immediate risk is likely to be to the access road which runs around the eastern side of the runway, which is shown to be vulnerable under Hurricane Ivan conditions (a water level of 4.40 m above mean sea level, consisting of astronomical tide, storm surge and wave setup) with no sea-level rise superimposed.These results must be interpreted with caution as there is no subdaily precipitation data nor River Yambou 铿俹w data, both of which would be required for a more rigorous assessment of the 铿俹od risk to the airport. The simplistic representation of the tunnels is also likely to introduce uncertainty by applying an approximate 铿俹w solution once the tunnels are full. The main outcome from this work is a modelling framework which could be applied in the future, should better observational data become available to increase the accuracy and robustness of subsequent 铿俹od risk assessments.