The Pattern of Interest Rates: Does it Signal an Impending Recession?

Labonte, Marc ; Makinen, Gail

Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service.

关键词: Economic policy;    Finance;    Interest rates;    Business cycles;    Economic forecasting;   

RP-ID  :  RS22371
RP-ID  :  RS22371_2008May05

美国|英语

来源: UNT Digital Library

【 摘 要 】

The cyclical behavior of the economy is of great interest to Congress, yet the onset of an economic downturn is seldom recognized promptly. Policymakers frequently search for reliable recession predictors. The behavior of interest rates may provide advanced warning of an impending downturn. The easing of monetary policy in evidence since September 2007 is consistent with efforts to forestall or minimize an economic downturn. Economic growth has been low since the last quarter of 2007, and some forecasters are now predicting a recession in 2008.