Critical infrastructure protection decision support system decision model : overview and quick-start user's guide.

Samsa, M. ; Van Kuiken, J. ; Jusko, M. ; Sciences, Decision and Information

Argonne National Laboratory

关键词: Probability;    99 General And Miscellaneous//Mathematics, Computing, And Information Science;    Decision Making;    C Codes;    Risk Assessment;   

DOI  :  10.2172/946040
RP-ID  :  ANL/DIS-08/7
RP-ID  :  DE-AC02-06CH11357
RP-ID  :  946040

美国|其它

来源: UNT Digital Library

【 摘 要 】

The Critical Infrastructure Protection Decision Support System Decision Model (CIPDSS-DM) is a useful tool for comparing the effectiveness of alternative risk-mitigation strategies on the basis of CIPDSS consequence scenarios. The model is designed to assist analysts and policy makers in evaluating and selecting the most effective risk-mitigation strategies, as affected by the importance assigned to various impact measures and the likelihood of an incident. A typical CIPDSS-DM decision map plots the relative preference of alternative risk-mitigation options versus the annual probability of an undesired incident occurring once during the protective life of the investment, assumed to be 20 years. The model also enables other types of comparisons, including a decision map that isolates a selected impact variable and displays the relative preference for the options of interest--parameterized on the basis of the contribution of the isolated variable to total impact, as well as the likelihood of the incident. Satisfaction/regret analysis further assists the analyst or policy maker in evaluating the confidence with which one option can be selected over another.