Review of Jamaica Public Service Company, Ltd. least-cost expansion plan.

Koritarov, V. ; Buehring, W. ; Cirillo, R. ; Sciences, Decision and Information

Argonne National Laboratory

关键词: Modifications;    Management;    02 Petroleum;    Wasps;    Sensitivity;   

DOI  :  10.2172/924701
RP-ID  :  ANL/DIS/RP-61102
RP-ID  :  DE-AC02-06CH11357
RP-ID  :  924701

美国|其它

来源: UNT Digital Library

【 摘 要 】

Argonne National Laboratory has been asked to review the least-cost expansion plan (LCEP) of the Jamaica Public Service Company, Ltd. (JPSCo). The material that has been initially provided to Argonne included: (1) An electronic copy of the data and results from JPSCo's running the WASP electric system expansion planning model, (2) Approximately 20 pages of a document 'JPSCo Generation Expansion Plan', marked 'DRAFT 002', date unknown, and (3) The report 'JPSCo Least Cost Generation Expansion Plans, (1999-2009)', January 1999. It was noticed that the 20 pages from the 'DRAFT 002' document were different from the January 1999 report. An explanation was provided to Argonne that the excerpt was from an earlier draft and that the review should focus on the January 1999 report. Further, the electronic copy of the WASP case did not correspond to either the January 1999 report or to the 20-page excerpt. Again, the reason for these discrepancies was that the WASP case provided to Argonne was an earlier case and not the final one that was presented in the report. Based on the review of the available material, Argonne experts have prepared and submitted to the National Investment Bank of Jamaica (NIBJ) a preliminary draft report containing the initial findings, comments, questions and observations. As many of the comments and questions raised in the preliminary review needed to be discussed with the appropriate staff of JPSCo and other Jamaican experts, a 3-day mission to Jamaica was carried out by one Argonne expert (V. Koritarov) in the period July 20-23, 1999. Besides JPSCo experts, the discussions and the review of the LCEP during the mission included several experts from NIBJ, Ministry of Energy, and the Petroleum Corporation of Jamaica. Mr. Koritarov also worked with the JPSCo technical staff to reconstruct the WASP base case that was used as a basis for the January 1999 report. The first step was to verify that the results obtained after the resimulation of this case were identical to those presented in the January 1999 report. Then, in the next step, the Argonne expert and JPSCo team reviewed this case in detail and performed certain modifications and improvements of data where necessary. These modifications and data adjustments resulted in a new base case that served as a basis for further review and for the sensitivity analyses. Several sensitivity analyses were performed together with JPSCo experts and the results were discussed with the JPSCo management and other Jamaican experts at the end of the mission. Additional sensitivity analyses, as well as the cases for high and low load forecasts, were conducted by Mr. Koritarov after returning from Jamaica. The main findings of the review and issues that have been discussed with the Jamaican team can be summarized.