Modeling conflict : research methods, quantitative modeling, and lessons learned.

Rexroth, Paul E. ; Malczynski, Leonard A. ; Hendrickson, Gerald A. ; Kobos, Peter Holmes ; McNamara, Laura A.

Sandia National Laboratories

关键词: 99 General And Miscellaneous//Mathematics, Computing, And Information Science;    Conflict Management.;    Socio-Economic Factors;    Mathematical Models;    Culture Conflict.;   

DOI  :  10.2172/919658
RP-ID  :  SAND2004-4745
RP-ID  :  AC04-94AL85000
RP-ID  :  919658

美国|英语

来源: UNT Digital Library

【 摘 要 】

This study investigates the factors that lead countries into conflict. Specifically, political, social and economic factors may offer insight as to how prone a country (or set of countries) may be for inter-country or intra-country conflict. Largely methodological in scope, this study examines the literature for quantitative models that address or attempt to model conflict both in the past, and for future insight. The analysis concentrates specifically on the system dynamics paradigm, not the political science mainstream approaches of econometrics and game theory. The application of this paradigm builds upon the most sophisticated attempt at modeling conflict as a result of system level interactions. This study presents the modeling efforts built on limited data and working literature paradigms, and recommendations for future attempts at modeling conflict.