Estimation of fatigue and extreme load distributions from limited data with application to wind energy systems.

Fitzwater, LeRoy M.

Sandia National Laboratories

关键词: Probability;    Vectors;    Wind Turbines Wind Turbines-Mathematical Models.;    Turbines;    Wind Turbines-Mathematical Models.;   

DOI  :  10.2172/918211
RP-ID  :  SAND2004-0001
RP-ID  :  AC04-94AL85000
RP-ID  :  918211

美国|英语

来源: UNT Digital Library

【 摘 要 】

An estimate of the distribution of fatigue ranges or extreme loads for wind turbines may be obtained by separating the problem into two uncoupled parts, (1) a turbine specific portion, independent of the site and (2) a site-specific description of environmental variables. We consider contextually appropriate probability models to describe the turbine specific response for extreme loads or fatigue. The site-specific portion is described by a joint probability distribution of a vector of environmental variables, which characterize the wind process at the hub-height of the wind turbine. Several approaches are considered for combining the two portions to obtain an estimate of the extreme load, e.g., 50-year loads or fatigue damage. We assess the efficacy of these models to obtain accurate estimates, including various levels of epistemic uncertainty, of the turbine response.