Ideas underlying quantification of margins and uncertainties(QMU): a white paper.

Helton, Jon Craig ; Trucano, Timothy Guy ; Pilch, Martin M.

Sandia National Laboratories

关键词: Decision Making;    Management;    Stockpiles Nuclear Weapon Stockpile.-Reliability;    Simulation;    Nuclear Weapon Stockpile.-Reliability;   

DOI  :  10.2172/891369
RP-ID  :  SAND2006-5001
RP-ID  :  AC04-94AL85000
RP-ID  :  891369

美国|英语

来源: UNT Digital Library

【 摘 要 】

This report describes key ideas underlying the application of Quantification of Margins and Uncertainties (QMU) to nuclear weapons stockpile lifecycle decisions at Sandia National Laboratories. While QMU is a broad process and methodology for generating critical technical information to be used in stockpile management, this paper emphasizes one component, which is information produced by computational modeling and simulation. In particular, we discuss the key principles of developing QMU information in the form of Best Estimate Plus Uncertainty, the need to separate aleatory and epistemic uncertainty in QMU, and the risk-informed decision making that is best suited for decisive application of QMU. The paper is written at a high level, but provides a systematic bibliography of useful papers for the interested reader to deepen their understanding of these ideas.