Evaluation of Statistical Methodologies Used in U. S. Army Ordnance and Explosive Work

Ostrouchov, G

Oak Ridge National Laboratory

关键词: Decision Making;    Tuning;    Documentation;    Land Use;    Sampling;   

DOI  :  10.2172/885747
RP-ID  :  ORNL/TM-13588
RP-ID  :  DE-AC05-00OR22725
RP-ID  :  885747

美国|英语

来源: UNT Digital Library

【 摘 要 】

Oak Ridge National Laboratory was tasked by the U.S. Army Engineering and Support Center (Huntsville, AL) to evaluate the mathematical basis of existing software tools used to assist the Army with the characterization of sites potentially contaminated with unexploded ordnance (UXO). These software tools are collectively known as SiteStats/GridStats. The first purpose of the software is to guide sampling of underground anomalies to estimate a site's UXO density. The second purpose is to delineate areas of homogeneous UXO density that can be used in the formulation of response actions. It was found that SiteStats/GridStats does adequately guide the sampling so that the UXO density estimator for a sector is unbiased. However, the software's techniques for delineation of homogeneous areas perform less well than visual inspection, which is frequently used to override the software in the overall sectorization methodology. The main problems with the software lie in the criteria used to detect nonhomogeneity and those used to recommend the number of homogeneous subareas. SiteStats/GridStats is not a decision-making tool in the classical sense. Although it does provide information to decision makers, it does not require a decision based on that information. SiteStats/GridStats provides information that is supplemented by visual inspections, land-use plans, and risk estimates prior to making any decisions. Although the sector UXO density estimator is unbiased regardless of UXO density variation within a sector, its variability increases with increased sector density variation. For this reason, the current practice of visual inspection of individual sampled grid densities (as provided by Site-Stats/GridStats) is necessary to ensure approximate homogeneity, particularly at sites with medium to high UXO density. Together with Site-Stats/GridStats override capabilities, this provides a sufficient mechanism for homogeneous sectorization and thus yields representative UXO density estimates. Objections raised by various parties to the use of a numerical ''discriminator'' in SiteStats/GridStats were likely because of the fact that the concerned statistical technique is customarily applied for a different purpose and because of poor documentation. The ''discriminator'', in Site-Stats/GridStats is a ''tuning parameter'' for the sampling process, and it affects the precision of the grid density estimates through changes in required sample size. It is recommended that sector characterization in terms of a map showing contour lines of constant UXO density with an expressed uncertainty or confidence level is a better basis for remediation decisions than a sector UXO density point estimate. A number of spatial density estimation techniques could be adapted to the UXO density estimation problem.