The cost of geothermal energy in the western US region:a portfolio-based approach a mean-variance portfolio optimization of the regions' generating mix to 2013.

Beurskens, Luuk (ECN-Energy Research Centre of the Netherland) ; Jansen, Jaap C. (ECN-Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands) ; Awerbuch, Shimon Ph.D. (.University of Sussex, Brighton, UK) ; Drennen, Thomas E.

Sandia National Laboratories

关键词: Renewable Energy Sources;    Geothermal Energy;    Economics;    Targets Geothermal Legacy;    Geothermal Resources;   

DOI  :  10.2172/876243
RP-ID  :  SAND2005-5173
RP-ID  :  AC04-94AL85000
RP-ID  :  876243

美国|英语

来源: UNT Digital Library

【 摘 要 】

Energy planning represents an investment-decision problem. Investors commonly evaluate such problems using portfolio theory to manage risk and maximize portfolio performance under a variety of unpredictable economic outcomes. Energy planners need to similarly abandon their reliance on traditional, ''least-cost'' stand-alone technology cost estimates and instead evaluate conventional and renewable energy sources on the basis of their portfolio cost--their cost contribution relative to their risk contribution to a mix of generating assets. This report describes essential portfolio-theory ideas and discusses their application in the Western US region. The memo illustrates how electricity-generating mixes can benefit from additional shares of geothermal and other renewables. Compared to fossil-dominated mixes, efficient portfolios reduce generating cost while including greater renewables shares in the mix. This enhances energy security. Though counter-intuitive, the idea that adding more costly geothermal can actually reduce portfolio-generating cost is consistent with basic finance theory. An important implication is that in dynamic and uncertain environments, the relative value of generating technologies must be determined not by evaluating alternative resources, but by evaluating alternative resource portfolios. The optimal results for the Western US Region indicate that compared to the EIA target mixes, there exist generating mixes with larger geothermal shares at equal-or-lower expected cost and risk.