New Method and Reporting of Uncertainty in LBNL National Energy Modeling System Runs

Gumerman, Etan Z. ; LaCommare, Kristina Hamachi ; Marnay, Chris

Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

关键词: Sensitivity Analysis;    Sensitivity;    29 Energy Planning, Policy And Economy;    32 Energy Conservation, Consumption, And Utilization;    Simulation Nems Uncertainty;   

DOI  :  10.2172/816362
RP-ID  :  LBNL--52399
RP-ID  :  AC03-76SF00098
RP-ID  :  816362

美国|英语

来源: UNT Digital Library

【 摘 要 】

This report describes LBNL's approach for assessing uncertainty in any National Energy Modeling System (NEMS)-related analysis. Based on years of experience using LBNL-NEMS for various analyses, LBNL developed an alternative approach that aims to provide a simple yet comprehensive perspective of how the results behave under a given set of what we believe to be some of the issues important to large-scale energy modeling. This project has established a standard set of eight sensitivity cases that can be run overnight and are highly likely to produce stable and interesting results. The goal was to establish a limited number of interesting sensitivity cases that would routinely produce adjunct results to LBNL-NEMS reporting that will be of value to our readers. These cases will be routinely reported together with future LBNL-NEMS results in the form of a standard output table. As an example, this work uses a Government Performance and Results Act (GPRA) analysis run as the baseline, but th e goal is to establish a standardized set of cases that would change little over time and be applicable to other analyses in addition to GPRA. The approach developed here cannot serve as a substitute for a sensitivity analysis tailored to the question at hand, but it can provide a fast review of some areas that have proven to be of interest in the past.