Combination of Evidence in Dempster-Shafer Theory

SENTZ, KARI ; FERSON, SCOTT

Sandia National Laboratories

关键词: Probability;    99 General And Miscellaneous//Mathematics, Computing, And Information Science;    Mathematical Models;    Reliability;    Risk Assessment;   

DOI  :  10.2172/800792
RP-ID  :  SAND2002-0835
RP-ID  :  AC04-94AL85000
RP-ID  :  800792

美国|英语

来源: UNT Digital Library

【 摘 要 】

Dempster-Shafer theory offers an alternative to traditional probabilistic theory for the mathematical representation of uncertainty. The significant innovation of this framework is that it allows for the allocation of a probability mass to sets or intervals. Dempster-Shafer theory does not require an assumption regarding the probability of the individual constituents of the set or interval. This is a potentially valuable tool for the evaluation of risk and reliability in engineering applications when it is not possible to obtain a precise measurement from experiments, or when knowledge is obtained from expert elicitation. An important aspect of this theory is the combination of evidence obtained from multiple sources and the modeling of conflict between them. This report surveys a number of possible combination rules for Dempster-Shafer structures and provides examples of the implementation of these rules for discrete and interval-valued data.