Projecting Fatalities in Crashes Involving Older Drivers, 2000-2025

Hu, P.S.

Oak Ridge National Laboratory

关键词: Death;    Elderly People;    Forecasting;    Vehicles;    32 Energy Conservation, Consumption, And Utilization;   

DOI  :  10.2172/777650
RP-ID  :  ORNL-6963
RP-ID  :  AC05-96OR22464
RP-ID  :  777650

美国|英语

来源: UNT Digital Library

【 摘 要 】

As part of this research effort, we developed a new methodology for projecting elderly traffic crash fatalities. This methodology separates exposure to crashes from crash risk per se, and further divides exposure into two components, the number of miles driven and the likelihood of being a driver. This component structure permits conceptually different determinants of traffic fatalities to be projected separately and has thorough motivation in behavioral theory. It also permits finer targeting of particular aspects of projections that need improvement and closer linking of projections to possible policy instruments for influencing them.