Energy Flowchart Scenarios of Future U.S. Energy Use Incorporating Hydrogen Fueled Vehicles

Berry, G ; Daily III, W

Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory

关键词: Energy Consumption;    Hydrogen Fuel Cells;    Hydrogen Fuels;    Energy Sources;    08 Hydrogen;   

DOI  :  10.2172/15014336
RP-ID  :  UCRL-TR-204891
RP-ID  :  W-7405-ENG-48
RP-ID  :  15014336

美国|英语

来源: UNT Digital Library

【 摘 要 】

This project has adapted LLNL energy flowcharts of historical U.S. energy use drawn from the DOE Energy Information Administration (EIA) data to include scenarios involving hydrogen use. A flexible automated process for preparing and drawing these flowcharts has also been developed. These charts show the flows of energy between primary sectors of the economy so that a user can quickly understand the major implications of a proposed scenario. The software can rapidly generate a spectrum of U.S. energy use scenarios in the 2005-2050 timeframe, both with and without a transition to hydrogen-fueled transportation. These scenarios indicate that fueling 100% of the light duty fleet in 2050 (318 million 80 mpg-equivalent compressed hydrogen fuel cell vehicles) will require approximately 100 million tonnes (10.7 quads) of H2/year, reducing petroleum use by at least 7.3 million barrels of oil/day (15.5 quads/yr). Linear extrapolation of EIA's 2025 reference projection to 2050 indicates approximate U.S. primary energy use of 180 quads/yr (in 2050) relative to current use of 97 quads/yr (comprising 39 quads/yr of petroleum). Full deployment of 50% efficient electricity generation technologies for coal and nuclear power and improvements in gasoline lightduty vehicle fleet fuel economy to 50 mpg would reduce projected U.S. primary energy consumption to 143 quads/yr in 2050, comprising 58 quads/yr (27 million bbl/day) of petroleum. Full deployment of H2 automobiles by 2050 could further reduce U.S. petroleum dependence to 43 quads/yr. These projections indicate that substantial steps beyond a transition to H2 light-duty vehicles will be necessary to reduce future U.S. petroleum dependence (and related greenhouse gases) below present levels. A flowchart projecting future U.S. energy flows depicting a complete transition by 2050 to compressed hydrogen light-duty vehicles is attached on the following page (corresponding to scenario 7 in the Appendix). It indicates that producing 100 billion kilograms of hydrogen fuel annually (10.7 quads/yr) from a balanced blend of primary energy sources will likely require 16.2 quads of primary energy input, with an additional 0.96 Quads of electricity for hydrogen storage. These energy flows are comparable to or smaller than projected growth in individual primary energy sources over the 2005-2050 timeframe except perhaps the case of windpower.