INCCA: Integrated Climate and Carbon Final Report of the LLNL LDRD Strategic Initiative

Thompson, S L

Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory

关键词: Plants;    Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory;    Carbon Dioxide;    Environmental Impacts;    58 Geosciences;   

DOI  :  10.2172/15009783
RP-ID  :  UCRL-TR-202380
RP-ID  :  W-7405-ENG-48
RP-ID  :  15009783

美国|英语

来源: UNT Digital Library

【 摘 要 】

The INCCA (Integrated Climate and Carbon) strategic initiative developed and applied the ability to simulate the fate and climate impact of fossil fuel-derived carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) on a global scale. Coupled climate and carbon cycle modeling like that of INCCA is required to understand and predict the future environmental impacts of fossil fuel burning. At present, atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations are prescribed, not simulated, in large climate models. Credible simulations of the entire climate system, however, need to predict time-evolving climate forcing using anthropogenic emissions as the fundamental input. Predicting atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations represents a substantial scientific advance because there are large natural sources and sinks of carbon that are likely to change as a result of climate change. Both terrestrial (e.g., vegetation on land) and oceanic components of the carbon cycle are known to be sensitive to climate change. Estimates of the amount of man-made CO{sub 2} that will accumulate in the atmosphere depend on understanding the carbon cycle. For this reason, models that use CO{sub 2} emissions, not prescribed atmospheric concentrations, as fundamental inputs are required to directly address greenhouse-related questions of interest to policymakers.