Simulation of Climate Forcing by Aerosols

Ghan, Steven J. ; Bian, Xindi ; Chapman, Elaine G. ; Easter, Richard C. ; Fann, George I. ; Kothari, Suraj C. ; Zaveri, Rahul A. ; Zhang, Yang

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States), Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory (EMSL)

关键词: Modifications;    Aerosols;    Greenhouse Gases;    Simulation Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory;    54 Environmental Sciences;   

DOI  :  10.2172/15007408
RP-ID  :  PNNL-14634
RP-ID  :  AC05-76RL01830
RP-ID  :  15007408

美国|英语

来源: UNT Digital Library

【 摘 要 】

The largest source of uncertainty in estimates of the radiative forcing governing climate change is in the radiative forcing due to anthropogenic aerosols. Current estimates of the global mean of the aerosol radiative forcing range from –0.3 to –3.0 watts per square meter (Wm-2 ) which is opposite in sign and possibly comparable in magnitude to the +2 Wm-2 forcing due to increasing greenhouse gases. We have developed a global aerosol and climate modeling system that provides arguably the most detailed treatment of aerosols and their impact on the planetary radiation balance of any model, but our estimates of radiative forcing have been hindered by our lack of access to high performance computing resources. We propose to use the MSCF to conduct a series of simulations with and without emissions of a variety of aerosol particles and aerosol precursors. These extensive simulations will enable us to produce much more refined estimates of the impact of anthropogenic emissions on radiative forcing of climate change. To take full advantage of the parallelism available on the MSCF MPP1, we will apply the Global Array Toolkit to dynamically load balance the reactive chemistry component of our model. We will adapt our modifications of the serial NCAR Community Climate Model CCM2 to the parallel NCAR CCM3.10.