Post Hoc Evaluation of Long-Term Goals for Energy Savings in the Buildings Sector: Lessons from Hindsight

Anderson, Dave M. ; Hostick, Donna J.

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (U.S.)

关键词: Retrospective Analysis;    Buildings;    Buildings;    Cost Benefit Analysis Buildings;    Forecasting;   

DOI  :  10.2172/15003619
RP-ID  :  PNNL-14262
RP-ID  :  AC06-76RL01830
RP-ID  :  15003619

美国|英语

来源: UNT Digital Library

【 摘 要 】

This report is one of two that re-examines the forecasted impact of individual programs currently within the Buildings Technology Program (BT) and the Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program (WIP) that appeared in the FY2000 Presidential Budget request. This report outlines the effects of re-estimating the FY 2000 budget request based on overlaying project data from subsequent years essentially revised out-year forecasts of project benefits. It shows that year-to-year long-term projections of primary energy savings can vary widely as models improve and programs change. Note that the FY2000 budget request was originally analyzed under the former Office of Building Technology, State and Community Programs (BTS), where BT and WIP were previously combined. Throughout the document, reference will be made to the predecessor of the BT and WIP programs, BTS, as FY2000 reflected that organization. A companion report develops potential methods for allowing inherent risk to be captured in the project benefits analysis. The point estimates in this paper are not influenced by uncertainty or risk. That report develops potential methods for allowing inherent risk to affect the benefits analysis via Monte Carlo simulation.