Methods for Developing Emissions Scenarios for Integrated Assessment Models

Prinn, Ronald ; Webster, Mort

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

关键词: 97 Mathematics And Computing;    54 Environmental Sciences;   

DOI  :  10.2172/1080199
RP-ID  :  DOE/ER/64320-1
RP-ID  :  FG02-06ER64320
RP-ID  :  1080199

美国|英语

来源: UNT Digital Library

【 摘 要 】

The overall objective of this research was to contribute data and methods to support the future development of new emissions scenarios for integrated assessment of climate change. Specifically, this research had two main objectives: 1. Use historical data on economic growth and energy efficiency changes, and develop probability density functions (PDFs) for the appropriate parameters for two or three commonly used integrated assessment models. 2. Using the parameter distributions developed through the first task and previous work, we will develop methods of designing multi-gas emission scenarios that usefully span the joint uncertainty space in a small number of scenarios. Results on the autonomous energy efficiency improvement (AEEI) parameter are summarized, an uncertainty analysis of elasticities of substitution is described, and the probabilistic emissions scenario approach is presented.