Sensitivity of Utility-Scale Solar Deployment Projections in the SunShot Vision Study to Market and Performance Assumptions

Eurek, K. ; Denholm, P. ; Margolis, R. ; Mowers, M.

National Renewable Energy Laboratory (U.S.)

关键词: Reeds;    Solar Energy - Thermal;    Solar Energy - Photovoltaics;    Sensitivity;    Capacity Expansion;   

DOI  :  10.2172/1076634
RP-ID  :  AC36-08GO28308
RP-ID  :  1076634

美国|英语

来源: UNT Digital Library

【 摘 要 】

The SunShot Vision Study explored the potential growth of solar markets if solar prices decreased by about 75% from 2010 to 2020. The ReEDS model was used to simulate utility PV and CSP deployment for this present study, based on several market and performance assumptions - electricity demand, natural gas prices, coal retirements, cost and performance of non-solar renewable technologies, PV resource variability, distributed PV deployment, and solar market supply growth - in addition to the SunShot solar price projections. This study finds that utility-scale solar deployment is highly sensitive to solar prices. Other factors can have significant impacts, particularly electricity demand and natural gas prices.