CCSI Risk Estimation: An Application of Expert Elicitation

Engel, David W. ; Dalton, Angela C.

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (U.S.)

关键词: Ccsi, Risk Analysis, Expert Elicitation, Risk Elicitation;   

DOI  :  10.2172/1064598
RP-ID  :  PNNL-21785
RP-ID  :  AC05-76RL01830
RP-ID  :  1064598

美国|英语

来源: UNT Digital Library

【 摘 要 】

The Carbon Capture Simulation Initiative (CCSI) is a multi-laboratory simulation-driven effort to develop carbon capture technologies with the goal of accelerating commercialization and adoption in the near future. One of the key CCSI technical challenges is representing and quantifying the inherent uncertainty and risks associated with developing, testing, and deploying the technology in simulated and real operational settings. To address this challenge, the CCSI Element 7 team developed a holistic risk analysis and decision-making framework. The purpose of this report is to document the CCSI Element 7 structured systematic expert elicitation to identify additional risk factors. We review the significance of and established approaches to expert elicitation, describe the CCSI risk elicitation plan and implementation strategies, and conclude by discussing the next steps and highlighting the contribution of risk elicitation toward the achievement of the overarching CCSI objectives.