Subtask 2.4 - Integration and Synthesis in Climate Change Predictive Modeling

Solc, Jaroslav

University of North Dakota

关键词: Calibration;    Forecasting;    Information;    Computerized Simulation;    Data;   

DOI  :  10.2172/1001342
RP-ID  :  None
RP-ID  :  FC26-08NT43291
RP-ID  :  1001342

美国|英语

来源: UNT Digital Library

【 摘 要 】

The Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) completed a brief evaluation of the existing status of predictive modeling to assess options for integration of our previous paleohydrologic reconstructions and their synthesis with current global climate scenarios. Results of our research indicate that short-term data series available from modern instrumental records are not sufficient to reconstruct past hydrologic events or predict future ones. On the contrary, reconstruction of paleoclimate phenomena provided credible information on past climate cycles and confirmed their integration in the context of regional climate history is possible. Similarly to ice cores and other paleo proxies, acquired data represent an objective, credible tool for model calibration and validation of currently observed trends. It remains a subject of future research whether further refinement of our results and synthesis with regional and global climate observations could contribute to improvement and credibility of climate predictions on a regional and global scale.