Forecasting the U.S. Season-Average Farm Price of Upland Cotton: Derivation of a Futures Price Forecasting Model

Linwood Hoffman ; Leslie Meyer

United States Department of Agriculture

关键词: upland cotton;    season-average farm price forecasts;    futures-adjusted forecast model;    futures prices;    basis;    marketing weights;   

RP-ID  :  CWS-18I-01

学科分类：农业科学（综合）

美国|英语

来源: United States Department of Agriculture Publications

【 摘 要 】

A forward-looking futures price-based model is developed that assists in forecasting upland cotton’s season-average price (SAP) received by farmers. The SAP impacts resources devoted to cotton production, marketing, and manufacturing, and forecasts inform these decisions. A series of models are developed to generate alternative monthly SAP forecasts.