Forecasting Consumer Price Indexes for Food: A Demand Model Approach

Kuo Huang

United States Department of Agriculture

关键词: Food price forecasts;    inverse demand system;    autoregressive model;   

RP-ID  :  TB-1883

学科分类：农业科学（综合）

美国|英语

来源: United States Department of Agriculture Publications

【 摘 要 】

Forecasting food prices is an important component of the U.S. Department of Agriculture's short-term outlook and long-term baseline forecasting activities. A food price-forecasting model is developed by applying an inverse demand system, in which prices are functions of quantities of food use and income. Therefore, these quantity and income variables can be used as explanatory variables for food price changes. The empirical model provides an effective instrument for forecasting consumer price indexes of 16 food categories. ERS AutoFAX summary document # 01733. Contact: [e-mail].