Iran's Influence in Afghanistan: Implications for the U.S. Drawdown

Alireza Nader ; Ali Scotten ; Ahmad Rahmani ; Robert Stewart ; Leila Mahnad

RAND Corporation

RAND Corporation

关键词: Global Security;    Nation Building;    United States;    Military Demobilization;    Afghanistan;    Iran;    Students;   

DOI  :  10.7249/RR616
ISBN  :  9780833085924
RP-ID  :  RR-616

学科分类：自然科学（综合）

美国|英语

来源: RAND Corporation Published Research

【 摘 要 】

This study explores Iranian influence in Afghanistan and the implications for the United States after the departure of most American forces from Afghanistan. Iran has substantial economic, political, cultural, and religious leverage in Afghanistan. Kabul faces an obdurate insurgency that is likely to exploit the U.S. and international drawdown. The Afghan government will also face many economic difficulties in future years, and Afghanistan is highly dependent on international economic aid. Additionally, the biggest problem facing Afghanistan may be political corruption. Iranian influence in Afghanistan following the drawdown of international forces need not necessarily be a cause of concern for the United States though. Although Tehran will use its cultural, political, and economic sway in an attempt to shape a post-2016 Afghanistan, Iran and the United States share core interests there: to prevent the country from again becoming dominated by the Taliban and a safe haven for al Qaeda.