Evaluating Methods and Findings from a Study of State Gun Policies

Terry L. Schell ; Andrew R. Morral

RAND Corporation

RAND Corporation

关键词: United States;    Gun Violence;    Crime and Violence Prevention;    RAND-initiated;    Public Safety Legislation;   

DOI  :  10.7249/RR1642
RP-ID  :  RR-1642-RC

学科分类：自然科学（综合）

美国|英语

来源: RAND Corporation Published Research

【 摘 要 】

This brief technical report is part of RAND's ongoing Gun Policy in America research initiative. That project's review of the research on firearm policies included an article published in the journal The Lancet titled "Firearm Legislation and Firearm Mortality in the USA: A Cross-Sectional, State-Level Study," which examined the effects of 25 state laws on gun deaths. Given the relevance to RAND's ongoing research, the study team carefully reviewed the article and found several problems in the statistical methods and conclusions. The article's findings appeared likely to support bad gun policies and to hurt future research efforts that could treat them as valid. After reconstructing the data set and reanalyzing the article's models, RAND study team submitted a comment to The Lancet pointing out the significant problems in the article. Because the comment was limited to 250 words, this report provides technical background on the assessment, a detailed account of the errors detected, and statistical support for the RAND study team's conclusions.