Uncertainties in Cancer Risk Coefficients for Environmental Exposure to Radionuclides. An Uncertainty Analysis for Risk Coefficients Reported in Federal Guidance Report No. 13

Pawel, David¹  Leggett, Richard Wayne²  Eckerman, Keith F²  Nelson, Christopher¹ 

[1] U.S. Environmental Protection Agency;ORNL

关键词: DOSE RATES;    ENVIRONMENTAL EXPOSURE;    INGESTION;    INHALATION;    NEOPLASMS;    RADIOISOTOPES;    DATA COVARIANCES;    SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS;    RISK ASSESSMENT;   

DOI  :  10.2172/932607
RP-ID  :  ORNL/TM-2006/583
PID  :  OSTI ID: 932607
Others  :  Other: 400408000
Others  :  TRN: US0803936

学科分类：核能源与工程

美国|英语

来源: SciTech Connect

【 摘 要 】

Federal Guidance Report No. 13 (FGR 13) provides risk coefficients for estimation of the risk of cancer due to low-level exposure to each of more than 800 radionuclides. Uncertainties in risk coefficients were quantified in FGR 13 for 33 cases (exposure to each of 11 radionuclides by each of three exposure pathways) on the basis of sensitivity analyses in which various combinations of plausible biokinetic, dosimetric, and radiation risk models were used to generate alternative risk coefficients. The present report updates the uncertainty analysis in FGR 13 for the cases of inhalation and ingestion of radionuclides and expands the analysis to all radionuclides addressed in that report. The analysis indicates that most risk coefficients for inhalation or ingestion of radionuclides are determined within a factor of 5 or less by current information. That is, application of alternate plausible biokinetic and dosimetric models and radiation risk models (based on the linear, no-threshold hypothesis with an adjustment for the dose and dose rate effectiveness factor) is unlikely to change these coefficients by more than a factor of 5. In this analysis the assessed uncertainty in the radiation risk model was found to be the main determinant of the uncertainty category for most risk coefficients, but conclusions concerning the relative contributions of risk and dose models to the total uncertainty in a risk coefficient may depend strongly on the method of assessing uncertainties in the risk model.