Preliminary Technical Risk Analysis for the Geothermal Technologies Program

McVeigh, J. ; Cohen, J. ; Vorum, M. ; Porro, G. ; Nix, G.

关键词: NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY;    REFLECTION;    RISK ASSESSMENT;    SYNTHESIS GEOTHERMAL;    GEOTHERMAL TECHNOLOGIES PROGRAM;    RISK ANALYSIS;    RESEARCH;    LEVELIZED COST OF ENERGY;    LCOE;    GEOTHERMAL ELECTRIC TECHNOLOGY EVALUATION MODEL;    GETEM;   

DOI  :  10.2172/901249
RP-ID  :  NREL/TP-640-41156
PID  :  OSTI ID: 901249
Others  :  TRN: US200713%%342

学科分类：再生能源与代替技术

美国|英语

来源: SciTech Connect

【 摘 要 】

This report explains the goals, methods, and results of a probabilistic analysis of technical risk for a portfolio of R&D projects in the DOE Geothermal Technologies Program ('the Program'). The analysis is a task by Princeton Energy Resources International, LLC (PERI), in support of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) on behalf of the Program. The main challenge in the analysis lies in translating R&D results to a quantitative reflection of technical risk for a key Program metric: levelized cost of energy (LCOE). This requires both computational development (i.e., creating a spreadsheet-based analysis tool) and a synthesis of judgments by a panel of researchers and experts of the expected results of the Program's R&D.