Multi-Path Transportation Futures Study. Results from Phase 1

Phil Patterson, Phil¹  Singh, Margaret²  Plotkin, Steve²  Moore, Jim³ 

[1] U.S. Dept. of Energy, Washington, DC (United States);Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States);TAE

关键词: study light vehicle future;    fuel prices;    alternative fuels;    vehicle costs;   

DOI  :  10.2172/1219514
RP-ID  :  None
PID  :  OSTI ID: 1219514
Others  :  Other: 5540

美国|英语

来源: SciTech Connect

【 摘 要 】

Presentation reporting Phase 1 results, 3/9/2007. Projecting the future role of advanced drivetrains and fuels in the light vehicle market is inherently difficult, given the uncertainty (and likely volatility) of future oil prices, inadequate understanding of likely consumer response to new technologies, the relative infancy of several important new technologies with inevitable future changes in their performance and costs, and the importance — and uncertainty — of future government marketplace interventions (e.g., new regulatory standards or vehicle purchase incentives). The Multi-Path Transportation Futures (MP) Study has attempted to improve our understanding of this future role by examining several scenarios of vehicle costs, fuel prices, government subsidies, and other key factors. These are projections, not forecasts, in that they try to answer a series of “what if” questions without assigning probabilities to most of the basic assumptions.