Explorations in combining cognitive models of individuals and system dynamics models of groups.

Backus, George A.

关键词: POPULATION DYNAMICS;    BEHAVIOR;    MATHEMATICAL MODELS;    SOCIOLOGY;   

DOI  :  10.2172/1004372
RP-ID  :  SAND2008-4717
PID  :  OSTI ID: 1004372
Others  :  TRN: US201104%%888

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

美国|英语

来源: SciTech Connect

【 摘 要 】

This report documents a demonstration model of interacting insurgent leadership, military leadership, government leadership, and societal dynamics under a variety of interventions. The primary focus of the work is the portrayal of a token societal model that responds to leadership activities. The model also includes a linkage between leadership and society that implicitly represents the leadership subordinates as they directly interact with the population. The societal model is meant to demonstrate the efficacy and viability of using System Dynamics (SD) methods to simulate populations and that these can then connect to cognitive models depicting individuals. SD models typically focus on average behavior and thus have limited applicability to describe small groups or individuals. On the other hand, cognitive models readily describe individual behavior but can become cumbersome when used to describe populations. Realistic security situations are invariably a mix of individual and population dynamics. Therefore, the ability to tie SD models to cognitive models provides a critical capability that would be otherwise be unavailable.