Climate Change Technology R&D Portfolio Decision Making Under Uncertainty

Baker, E. ; Keisler, J. ; Chon, H.

关键词: BIOMASS;    CARBON;    CLIMATES;    CLIMATIC CHANGE;    DECISION MAKING;    ECONOMICS;    ELECTRICITY;    GREENHOUSE GASES;    MANAGEMENT;    NUCLEAR POWER;    STORAGE;    TRAJECTORIES Energy Technology R&D;    Climate Change;    Integrated Assessment Model;    Expert Elicitation;    Marginal Abatement Cost Curve;   

DOI  :  10.2172/940975
RP-ID  :  Final Report
PID  :  OSTI ID: 940975
Others  :  TRN: US201015%%1000

学科分类：能源（综合）

美国|英语

来源: SciTech Connect

【 摘 要 】

In this project we have completed, or are in the process of, collecting and analyzing information on seven energy technologies – solar photovoltaics, nuclear power, carbon capture and storage, electricity from biomass, liquid bio-fuels, and batteries – in regards to their potential impact on reducing greenhouse gas emissions. We have collected expert elicitations, relating U.S. government funding trajectories to probabilities of success. We then used MiniCAM, a technologically-detailed Integrated Assessnent Model to determine the impact on the marginal cost of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, if the technologies were successful. Finally, we have performed initial analysis on portfolios of technologies. This project has partially supported nine papers, either published, under review, or under preparation for such journals as Energy Economics, The Energy Journal, Climatic Change, Management Science, and Transportation Research.