Utility of Social Modeling for Proliferation Assessment - Preliminary Assessment

Coles, Garill A. ; Gastelum, Zoe N. ; Brothers, Alan J. ; Thompson, Sandra E.

关键词: ALGORITHMS;    NUCLEAR ENERGY;    PROLIFERATION;    SAFEGUARDS;    SIMULATION;    VULNERABILITY social modeling;    technosocial;    technosocial predictive analytics;    proliferation;    proliferation assessment;    proliferation resistance assessment;    safeguards;    safegurads analysis;   

DOI  :  10.2172/986730
RP-ID  :  PNNL-18438
PID  :  OSTI ID: 986730
Others  :  Other: NN2001000
Others  :  TRN: US201018%%629

学科分类：能源（综合）

美国|英语

来源: SciTech Connect

【 摘 要 】

This Preliminary Assessment draft report will present the results of a literature search and preliminary assessment of the body of research, analysis methods, models and data deemed to be relevant to the Utility of Social Modeling for Proliferation Assessment research. This report will provide: 1) a description of the problem space and the kinds of information pertinent to the problem space, 2) a discussion of key relevant or representative literature, 3) a discussion of models and modeling approaches judged to be potentially useful to the research, and 4) the next steps of this research that will be pursued based on this preliminary assessment. This draft report represents a technical deliverable for the NA-22 Simulations, Algorithms, and Modeling (SAM) program. Specifically this draft report is the Task 1 deliverable for project PL09-UtilSocial-PD06, Utility of Social Modeling for Proliferation Assessment. This project investigates non-traditional use of social and cultural information to improve nuclear proliferation assessment, including nonproliferation assessment, proliferation resistance assessments, safeguards assessments and other related studies. These assessments often use and create technical information about the State’s posture towards proliferation, the vulnerability of a nuclear energy system to an undesired event, and the effectiveness of safeguards. This project will find and fuse social and technical information by explicitly considering the role of cultural, social and behavioral factors relevant to proliferation. The aim of this research is to describe and demonstrate if and how social science modeling has utility in proliferation assessment.