Break-Even Cost for Residential Photovoltaics in the United States: Key Drivers and Sensitivities

Denholm, P. ; Margolis, R. M. ; Ong, S. ; Roberts, B.

关键词: ELECTRICITY;    FINANCING;    PARITY;    PERFORMANCE;    PRICES;    SENSITIVITY;    VIABILITY GRID PARITY;    BREAK-EVEN COST;    BREAK-EVEN PRICE;    BREAK-EVEN POINT;    BREAKEVEN;    SOLAR ENERGY;    SOLAR RESOURCE;    PHOTOVOLTAICS;    PV;    PV TECHNOLOGY;    PV MARKETS;    MARKET VIABILITY;    Energy Analysis;   

DOI  :  10.2172/969154
RP-ID  :  NREL/TP-6A2-46909
PID  :  OSTI ID: 969154
Others  :  TRN: US201001%%595

学科分类：再生能源与代替技术

美国|英语

来源: SciTech Connect

【 摘 要 】

Grid parity--or break-even cost--for photovoltaic (PV) technology is defined as the point where the cost of PV-generated electricity equals the cost of electricity purchased from the grid. Break-even cost is expressed in $/W of an installed system. Achieving break-even cost is a function of many variables. Consequently, break-even costs vary by location and time for a country, such as the United States, with a diverse set of resources, electricity prices, and other variables. In this report, we analyze PV break-even costs for U.S. residential customers. We evaluate some key drivers of grid parity both regionally and over time. We also examine the impact of moving from flat to time-of-use (TOU) rates, and we evaluate individual components of the break-even cost, including effect of rate structure and various incentives. Finally, we examine how PV markets might evolve on a regional basis considering the sensitivity of the break-even cost to four major drivers: technical performance, financing parameters, electricity prices and rates, and policies. We find that local incentives rather than ?technical? parameters are in general the key drivers of the break-even cost of PV. Additionally, this analysis provides insight about the potential viability of PV markets.