Climate Change, Nuclear Power and Nuclear Proliferation: Magnitude Matters

Robert J. Goldston

关键词: ACTINIDES;    CARBON SEQUESTRATION;    CLIMATES;    COMBUSTION;    ECONOMICS;    FISSION;    MITIGATION;    NUCLEAR POWER;    PLUTONIUM;    POWER PLANTS;    PROLIFERATION;    REACTOR TECHNOLOGY;    RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES;    THERMONUCLEAR REACTORS;    UR;   

DOI  :  10.2172/973207
RP-ID  :  PPPL-4502
PID  :  OSTI ID: 973207
Others  :  TRN: US1001910

学科分类：原子、分子光学和等离子物理

美国|英语

来源: SciTech Connect

【 摘 要 】

Integrated energy, environment and economics modeling suggests electrical energy use will increase from 2.4 TWe today to 12 TWe in 2100. It will be challenging to provide 40% of this electrical power from combustion with carbon sequestration, as it will be challenging to provide 30% from renewable energy sources. Thus nuclear power may be needed to provide ~30% by 2100. Calculations of the associated stocks and flows of uranium, plutonium and minor actinides indicate that the proliferation risks at mid-century, using current light-water reactor technology, are daunting. There are institutional arrangements that may be able to provide an acceptable level of risk mitigation, but they will be difficult to implement. If a transition is begun to fast-spectrum reactors at mid-century, without a dramatic change in the proliferation risks of such systems, at the end of the century proliferation risks are much greater, and more resistant to mitigation. The risks of nuclear power should be compared with the risks of the estimated 0.64oC long-term global surface-average temperature rise predicted if nuclear power were replaced with coal-fired power plants without carbon sequestration. Fusion energy, if developed, would provide a source of nuclear power with much lower proliferation risks than fission.