APPLICATION OF BAYESIAN AND GEOSTATISTICAL MODELING TO THE ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING OF CS-137 AT THE IDAHO NATIONAL LABORATORY

Kara G. Eby

关键词: FORECASTING;    KRIGING;    MITIGATION;    MONITORING;    MORTALITY;    NEOPLASMS;    PERFORMANCE;    RADIOISOTOPES;    SIMULATION;    SOILS;    TESTING;    US EPA;    WEAPONS Geostatistics;    Environmental Monito;   

DOI  :  10.2172/991915
RP-ID  :  INL/EXT-10-19532
PID  :  OSTI ID: 991915
Others  :  TRN: US201022%%88

学科分类：环境科学（综合）

美国|英语

来源: SciTech Connect

【 摘 要 】

At the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) Cs-137 concentrations above the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency risk-based threshold of 0.23 pCi/g may increase the risk of human mortality due to cancer. As a leader in nuclear research, the INL has been conducting nuclear activities for decades. Elevated anthropogenic radionuclide levels including Cs-137 are a result of atmospheric weapons testing, the Chernobyl accident, and nuclear activities occurring at the INL site. Therefore environmental monitoring and long-term surveillance of Cs-137 is required to evaluate risk. However, due to the large land area involved, frequent and comprehensive monitoring is limited. Developing a spatial model that predicts Cs-137 concentrations at unsampled locations will enhance the spatial characterization of Cs-137 in surface soils, provide guidance for an efficient monitoring program, and pinpoint areas requiring mitigation strategies. The predictive model presented herein is based on applied geostatistics using a Bayesian analysis of environmental characteristics across the INL site, which provides kriging spatial maps of both Cs-137 estimates and prediction errors. Comparisons are presented of two different kriging methods, showing that the use of secondary information (i.e., environmental characteristics) can provide improved prediction performance in some areas of the INL site.