Introduction to the Buildings Sector Module of SEDS

DeForest, Nicholas ; Bonnet, Florence ; Stadler, Michael ; Marnay, Chris

关键词: 32;    29;    ANL;    ENERGY CONSUMPTION;    ENERGY MODELS;    FORECASTING;    NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY;    PERFORMANCE;    SIMULATION Buildings;    Stochastic;    Uncertainty;    Energy Forecast;   

DOI  :  10.2172/1007198
RP-ID  :  LBNL-4281E
PID  :  OSTI ID: 1007198
Others  :  TRN: US201106%%877

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来源: SciTech Connect

【 摘 要 】

SEDS is a stochastic engineering-economics model that forecasts economy-wide energy consumption in the U.S. to 2050. It is the product of multi-laboratory collaboration among the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), and Lumina Decision Systems. Among national energy models, SEDS is unique, as it is the only model written to explicitly incorporate uncertainty in its inputs and outputs. The primary purpose of SEDS is to estimate the impact of various US Department of Energy (DOE)R&D and policy programs on the performance and subsequent adoption rates of technologies relating to every energy consuming sector of the economy (shown below). It has previously been used to assist DOE in complying with the Government Performance and Results Act of 1993 (GPRA). The focus of LBNL research has been exclusively on develop the buildings model (SBEAM), which is capable of running as a stand-alone forecasting model, or as a part of SEDS as a whole. The full version of SEDS, containing all sectors and interaction is also called the 'integrated' version and is managed by NREL. Forecasts from SEDS are often compared to those coming from National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The intention of this document is to present new users and developers with a general description of the purpose, functionality and structure of the buildings module within the Stochastic Energy Deployment System (SEDS). The Buildings module, which is capable of running as a standalone model, is also called the Stochastic Buildings Energy and Adoption Model (SBEAM). This document will focus exclusively on SBEAM and its interaction with other major sector modules present within SEDS. The methodologies and major assumptions employed in SBEAM will also be discussed. The organization of this report will parallel the organization of the model itself, being divided into major submodules. As the description progresses, the nature of modules will change from broad, easily understood concepts to lower-level data manipulation. Because SBEAM contains dozens of submodules and hundreds of variables, it would not be relevant or useful to describe each and every one. Rather, the investigation will focus more generally on the operations performed throughout the model. This manual is by no means a complete description of SBEAM; however it should provide the foundation for an introductory understanding of the model. The manual assumes a basic level of understating of Analytica{reg_sign}, the platform on which SEDS and SBEAM have been developed.