Uncertainty quantification of US Southwest climate from IPCC projections.

Boslough, Mark Bruce Elrick

关键词: ALGORITHMS;    CARBON;    CLIMATE MODELS;    CLIMATES;    DIAGNOSIS;    GENERAL CIRCULATION MODELS;    LAWRENCE LIVERMORE NATIONAL LABORATORY;    PHYSICS;    SIMULATION;   

DOI  :  10.2172/1011224
RP-ID  :  SAND2011-0393
PID  :  OSTI ID: 1011224
Others  :  TRN: US201109%%413

学科分类：环境科学（综合）

美国|英语

来源: SciTech Connect

【 摘 要 】

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) made extensive use of coordinated simulations by 18 international modeling groups using a variety of coupled general circulation models (GCMs) with different numerics, algorithms, resolutions, physics models, and parameterizations. These simulations span the 20th century and provide forecasts for various carbon emissions scenarios in the 21st century. All the output from this panoply of models is made available to researchers on an archive maintained by the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) at LLNL. I have downloaded this data and completed the first steps toward a statistical analysis of these ensembles for the US Southwest. This constitutes the final report for a late start LDRD project. Complete analysis will be the subject of a forthcoming report.