The U. S. transportation sector in the year 2030: results of a two-part Delphi survey.

Morrison, G. ; Stephens, T.S. (Energy Systems) ; (Univ. of California at Davis) ; (ES)

关键词: ANL;    AUTOMOBILES;    BIOFUELS;    CARGO;    CONSTRUCTION;    ENERGY EFFICIENCY;    FUEL CONSUMPTION;    OCCUPANTS;    TRANSPORTATION SECTOR;    VELOCITY;   

DOI  :  10.2172/1031452
RP-ID  :  ANL/ES/RP-71007
PID  :  OSTI ID: 1031452
Others  :  TRN: US201201%%719

学科分类：能源（综合）

美国|英语

来源: SciTech Connect

【 摘 要 】

A two-part Delphi Survey was given to transportation experts attending the Asilomar Conference on Transportation and Energy in August, 2011. The survey asked respondents about trends in the US transportation sector in 2030. Topics included: alternative vehicles, high speed rail construction, rail freight transportation, average vehicle miles traveled, truck versus passenger car shares, vehicle fuel economy, and biofuels in different modes. The survey consisted of two rounds -- both asked the same set of seven questions. In the first round, respondents were given a short introductory paragraph about the topic and asked to use their own judgment in their responses. In the second round, the respondents were asked the same questions, but were also given results from the first round as guidance. The survey was sponsored by Argonne National Lab (ANL), the National Renewable Energy Lab (NREL), and implemented by University of California at Davis, Institute of Transportation Studies. The survey was part of the larger Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) project run by the Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy. Of the 206 invitation letters sent, 94 answered all questions in the first round (105 answered at least one question), and 23 of those answered all questions in the second round. 10 of the 23 second round responses were at a discussion section at Asilomar, while the remaining were online. Means and standard deviations of responses from Round One and Two are given in Table 1 below. One main purpose of Delphi surveys is to reduce the variance in opinions through successive rounds of questioning. As shown in Table 1, the standard deviations of 25 of the 30 individual sub-questions decreased between Round One and Round Two, but the decrease was slight in most cases.