China's Building Energy Use: A Long-Term Perspective based on a Detailed Assessment

Eom, Jiyong ; Clarke, Leon E. ; Kim, Son H. ; Kyle, G. Page ; Patel, Pralit L.

关键词: CARBON;    ENERGY CONSUMPTION;    ENERGY DEMAND;    ENERGY SYSTEMS;    GREENHOUSE GASES;    IMPLEMENTATION;    STRUCTURAL MODELS China Buildings;    Building Energy Modeling;    Scenario Analysis;    Integrated Assessment Model;    Electrification;   

DOI  :  10.2172/1034232
RP-ID  :  PNNL-21073
PID  :  OSTI ID: 1034232
Others  :  Other: 400408000
Others  :  TRN: US201203%%505

学科分类：环境科学（综合）

美国|英语

来源: SciTech Connect

【 摘 要 】

We present here a detailed, service-based model of China's building energy use, nested in the GCAM (Global Change Assessment Model) integrated assessment framework. Using the model, we explore long-term pathways of China's building energy use and identify opportunities of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The inclusion of a structural model of building energy demands within an integrated assessment framework represents a major methodological advance. It allows for a structural understanding of the drivers of building energy consumption while simultaneously considering the other human and natural system interactions that influence changes in the global energy system and climate. We also explore a range of different scenarios to gain insights into how China's building sector might evolve and what the implications might be for improved building energy technology and carbon policies. The analysis suggests that China's building energy growth will not wane anytime soon, although technology improvement will put downward pressure on this growth. Also, regardless of the scenarios represented, the growth will involve the continued, rapid electrification of the buildings sector throughout the century, and this transition will be accelerated by the implementation of carbon policy.