Development of Ensemble Neural Network Convection Parameterizations for Climate Models

Fox-Rabinovitz, M. S. ; Krasnopolsky, V. M.

关键词: climate modeling;    neural networks;    convection parametrization;   

DOI  :  10.2172/1039344
RP-ID  :  DOE/ER/64606
PID  :  OSTI ID: 1039344

学科分类：数学（综合）

美国|英语

来源: SciTech Connect

【 摘 要 】

The novel neural network (NN) approach has been formulated and used for development of a NN ensemble stochastic convection parametrization for climate models. This fast parametrization is built based on data from Cloud Resolving Model (CRM) simulations initialized with and forced by TOGA-COARE data. The SAM (System for Atmospheric Modeling), developed by D. Randall, M. Khairoutdinov, and their collaborators, has been used for CRM simulations. The observational data are also used for validation of model simulations. The SAM-simulated data have been averaged and projected onto the GCM space of atmospheric states to implicitly define a stochastic convection parametrization. This parametrization is emulated using an ensemble of NNs. An ensemble of NNs with different NN parameters has been trained and tested. The inherent uncertainty of the stochastic convection parametrization derived in such a way is estimated. Due to these inherent uncertainties, NN ensemble is used to constitute a stochastic NN convection parametrization. The developed NN convection parametrization have been validated in a diagnostic CAM (CAM-NN) run vs. the control CAM run. Actually, CAM inputs have been used, at every time step of the control/original CAM integration, for parallel calculations of the NN convection parametrization (CAM-NN) to produce its outputs as a diagnostic byproduct. Total precipitation (P) and cloudiness (CLD) time series, diurnal cycles, and P and CLD distributions for the large Tropical Pacific Ocean for the parallel CAM-NN and CAM runs show similarity and consistency with the NCEP reanalysis. The P and CLD distributions for the tropical area for the parallel runs have been analyzed first for the TOGA-COARE boreal winter season (November 1992 through February 1993) and then for the winter seasons of the follow-up parallel decadal simulations. The obtained results are encouraging and practically meaningful. They show the validity of the NN approach. This constitutes an important practical conclusion of the study: the obtained results on NN ensembles as a stochastic physics parametrization show a realistic possibility of development of NN convection parametrization for climate (and NWP) models based on learning cloud physics from CRM/SAM simulated data.