Projecting Electricity Demand in 2050

Hostick, Donna J.¹  Belzer, David B.¹  Hadley, Stanton W.² 

[1]Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

[2]Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United St

关键词: End-use electricity demand;    load profiles;    electricity demand projections;   

DOI  :  10.2172/1172466
RP-ID  :  PNNL--23491
PID  :  OSTI ID: 1172466
Others  :  Other: 830403000

学科分类：能源（综合）

美国|英语

来源: SciTech Connect

【 摘 要 】

This paper describes the development of end-use electricity projections and load curves that were developed for the Renewable Electricity (RE) Futures Study (hereafter RE Futures), which explored the prospect of higher percentages (30% - 90%) of total electricity generation that could be supplied by renewable sources in the United States. As input to RE Futures, two projections of electricity demand were produced representing reasonable upper and lower bounds of electricity demand out to 2050. The electric sector models used in RE Futures required underlying load profiles, so RE Futures also produced load profile data in two formats: 8760 hourly data for the year 2050 for the GridView model, and in 2-year increments for 17 time slices as input to the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model. The process for developing demand projections and load profiles involved three steps: discussion regarding the scenario approach and general assumptions, literature reviews to determine readily available data, and development of the demand curves and load profiles.