Advanced Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Demonstration Project Plan

Justin Coleman

关键词: RISMC;    seismic;   

DOI  :  10.2172/1169241
RP-ID  :  INL/EXT-14-33302
PID  :  OSTI ID: 1169241

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

美国|英语

来源: SciTech Connect

【 摘 要 】

Idaho National Laboratories (INL) has an ongoing research and development (R&D) project to remove excess conservatism from seismic probabilistic risk assessments (SPRA) calculations. These risk calculations should focus on providing best estimate results, and associated insights, for evaluation and decision-making. This report presents a plan for improving our current traditional SPRA process using a seismic event recorded at a nuclear power plant site, with known outcomes, to improve the decision making process. SPRAs are intended to provide best estimates of the various combinations of structural and equipment failures that can lead to a seismic induced core damage event. However, in general this approach has been conservative, and potentially masks other important events (for instance, it was not the seismic motions that caused the Fukushima core melt events, but the tsunami ingress into the facility).