Methodology Development for Passive Component Reliability Modeling in a Multi-Physics Simulation Environment

Aldemir, Tunc¹  Denning, Richard¹  Catalyurek, Umit¹  Unwin, Stephen² 

[1] The Ohio State Univ., Columbus, OH (United States);Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

关键词: COMPUTERIZED SIMULATION;    PROBABILISTIC ESTIMATION;    SAFETY MARGINS;    DATA COVARIANCES;    MAINTENANCE;    RELIABILITY;    RISK ASSESSMENT;    FAILURES;    MANAGEMENT;    TESTING;    SERVICE;   

DOI  :  10.2172/1214664
RP-ID  :  DOE/NEUP--11-3030
PID  :  OSTI ID: 1214664
Others  :  Other: 11-3030
Others  :  TRN: US1500411

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来源: SciTech Connect

【 摘 要 】

Reduction in safety margin can be expected as passive structures and components undergo degradation with time. Limitations in the traditional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodology constrain its value as an effective tool to address the impact of aging effects on risk and for quantifying the impact of aging management strategies in maintaining safety margins. A methodology has been developed to address multiple aging mechanisms involving large numbers of components (with possibly statistically dependent failures) within the PRA framework in a computationally feasible manner when the sequencing of events is conditioned on the physical conditions predicted in a simulation environment, such as the New Generation System Code (NGSC) concept. Both epistemic and aleatory uncertainties can be accounted for within the same phenomenological framework and maintenance can be accounted for in a coherent fashion. The framework accommodates the prospective impacts of various intervention strategies such as testing, maintenance, and refurbishment. The methodology is illustrated with several examples.