Physical Uncertainty Bounds (PUB)

Vaughan, Diane Elizabeth¹  Preston, Dean L.¹ 

[1] Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

关键词: Materials Science(36);    Mathematics & Computing(97) Uncertainty Quantification;    Bounds;   

DOI  :  10.2172/1209314
RP-ID  :  LA-UR--14-20441
PID  :  OSTI ID: 1209314

美国|英语

来源: SciTech Connect

【 摘 要 】

This paper introduces and motivates the need for a new methodology for determining upper bounds on the uncertainties in simulations of engineered systems due to limited fidelity in the composite continuum-level physics models needed to simulate the systems. We show that traditional uncertainty quantification methods provide, at best, a lower bound on this uncertainty. We propose to obtain bounds on the simulation uncertainties by first determining bounds on the physical quantities or processes relevant to system performance. By bounding these physics processes, as opposed to carrying out statistical analyses of the parameter sets of specific physics models or simply switching out the available physics models, one can obtain upper bounds on the uncertainties in simulated quantities of interest.