Final Technical Report for DOE Award SC0006616

Robertson, Andrew¹ 

[1] Columbia Univ., New York, NY (United States)

关键词: Centennial proxy records;    Data-based closure models;    Empirical model reduction (EMR);    Indus River discharge;    Low-frequency variability (LFV);    Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO);    Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI);    Singular-spectrum analysis (SSA);    Stochastic modeling;    Time series analysis and forecasting;    Hidden Markov models;   

DOI  :  10.2172/1248960
RP-ID  :  DOE-Columbia-SC0006616-1
PID  :  OSTI ID: 1248960

学科分类：环境科学（综合）

美国|英语

来源: SciTech Connect

【 摘 要 】

This report summarizes research carried out by the project "Collaborative Research, Type 1: Decadal Prediction and Stochastic Simulation of Hydroclimate Over Monsoonal Asia. This collaborative project brought together climate dynamicists (UCLA, IRI), dendroclimatologists (LDEO Tree Ring Laboratory), computer scientists (UCI), and hydrologists (Columbia Water Center, CWC), together with applied scientists in climate risk management (IRI) to create new scientific approaches to quantify and exploit the role of climate variability and change in the growing water crisis across southern and eastern Asia. This project developed new tree-ring based streamflow reconstructions for rivers in monsoonal Asia; improved understanding of hydrologic spatio-temporal modes of variability over monsoonal Asia on interannual-to-centennial time scales; assessed decadal predictability of hydrologic spatio-temporal modes; developed stochastic simulation tools for creating downscaled future climate scenarios based on historical/proxy data and GCM climate change; and developed stochastic reservoir simulation and optimization for scheduling hydropower, irrigation and navigation releases.