A Statistical Approach For Modeling Tropical Cyclones. Synthetic Hurricanes Generator Model

Pasqualini, Donatella¹ 

[1] Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

关键词: Hurricane modeling;    risk assessment;    infrastructures;   

DOI  :  10.2172/1253509
RP-ID  :  LA-UR--16-23358
PID  :  OSTI ID: 1253509

学科分类：数学（综合）

美国|英语

来源: SciTech Connect

【 摘 要 】

This manuscript brie y describes a statistical ap- proach to generate synthetic tropical cyclone tracks to be used in risk evaluations. The Synthetic Hur- ricane Generator (SynHurG) model allows model- ing hurricane risk in the United States supporting decision makers and implementations of adaptation strategies to extreme weather. In the literature there are mainly two approaches to model hurricane hazard for risk prediction: deterministic-statistical approaches, where the storm key physical parameters are calculated using physi- cal complex climate models and the tracks are usually determined statistically from historical data; and sta- tistical approaches, where both variables and tracks are estimated stochastically using historical records. SynHurG falls in the second category adopting a pure stochastic approach.