Weather Jiu-Jitsu: Prospects for atmospheric nudging to defuse the impact of catastrophic weather extremes

PLOS Water

卷:5

Essay

Qin Huang¹  Moyan Liu¹  Upmanu Lall^1,2 

[1] Department of Earth and Environmental Engineering, Columbia University, New York, United States of America

[2] School of Complex Adaptive Systems, Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona, United States of America

关键词: Weather;    Hurricanes;    Flooding;    Atmospheric dynamics;    Atmospheric circulation;    Rain;    Insurance;    Finance;   

DOI  :  10.1371/journal.pwat.0000562

来源: PLOS

【 摘 要 】

Extreme weather events, e.g., droughts, floods, heatwaves, and freezes, are increasing in frequency and intensity, posing severe socio-economic impacts as growing populations heighten exposure to risks that conventional infrastructure cannot fully address. We propose supplementing disaster management with Weather Jiu-Jitsu: a strategy that exploits the chaotic sensitivity of mid-latitude atmospheric dynamics to redirect destructive weather trajectories through small, precisely timed perturbations guided by Finite-Time Lyapunov Exponent (FTLE) diagnostics and deep learning forecast models. Proof-of-concept experiments using the Aurora deep-learning Earth system model show that FTLE-guided nudges applied days before peak impact can shift a hurricane track to avoid landfall on a major city, weaken the peak intensity of a blocking-driven cold extreme, and reduce atmospheric river moisture transport under favorable upstream conditions. Control inputs remain below 2% of total system energy in idealized models, though real-world implementation will require advances in monitoring, attribution, and international governance. This nature-assisted approach could form a transformative complement to conventional disaster management in the 21st century.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
Huang et al 2026

【 图 表 】

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