A combined forecasting approach based on fuzzy soft sets

JOURNAL OF COMPUTATIONAL AND APPLIED MATHEMATICS

卷:228

Article

Xiao, Zhi¹  Gong, Ke¹  Zou, Yan² 

[1] Chongqing Univ, Sch Business Adm & Econ, Chongqing 400044, Peoples R China

[2] Chongqing Normal Univ, Coll Math & Comp Sci, Chongqing 400047, Peoples R China

关键词: Combined forecasting;    Fuzzy soft sets;    Soft sets;    Time series;    Rough sets;   

DOI  :  10.1016/j.cam.2008.09.033

来源: Elsevier

【 摘 要 】

Forecasting the export and import volume in international trade is the prerequisite of a government's policy-making and guidance fora healthier international trade development. However, an individual forecast may not always perform satisfactorily, while combination of forecasts may result in a better forecast than component forecasts. We believe the component forecasts employed in combined forecasts are a description of the actual time series, which is fuzzy. This paper attempts to use forecasting accuracy as the criterion of fuzzy membership function, and proposes a combined forecasting approach based on fuzzy soft sets. This paper also examines the method with data of international trade from 1993 to 2006 in the Chongqing Municipality of China and compares it with a combined forecasting approach based on rough sets and each individual forecast. The experimental results show that the combined approach provided in this paper improves the forecasting performance of each individual forecast and is free from a rough sets approach's restrictions as well. It is a promising forecasting approach and a new application of soft sets theory. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

【 授权许可】

Free