Participatory scenario development for environmental management: A methodological framework illustrated with experience from the UK uplands

JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT

卷:128

Article

Reed, M. S.¹  Kenter, J.²  Bonn, A.^3,4  Broad, K.⁵  Burt, T. P.⁶  Fazey, I. R.^7,8  Fraser, E. D. G.⁹  Hubacek, K.¹⁰  Nainggolan, D.¹¹  Quinn, C. H.¹¹  Stringer, L. C.¹¹ 

[1] Birmingham City Univ, Ctr Environm & Soc Res, Birmingham Sch Built Environm, Birmingham B4 7XG, W Midlands, England

[2] Univ Aberdeen, Sch Biol Sci, Aberdeen Ctr Environm Sustainabil, Aberdeen AB24 2TZ, Scotland

[3] Free Univ Berlin, Inst Biol, Berlin Brandenburg Inst Adv Biodivers Res BBIB, D-14195 Berlin, Germany

[4] UFZ Helmholtz Ctr Environm Res, Dept Econ, D-04318 Leipzig, Germany

[5] Univ Miami, Rosenstiel Sch Marine & Atmospher Sci, Div Meteorol & Phys Oceanog, Miami, FL 33149 USA

[6] Univ Durham, Dept Geog, Sci Labs, Durham DH1 3LE, England

[7] Univ Dundee, Sch Environm, Dundee DD1 4HN, Scotland

[8] Univ Dundee, CECHR, Dundee DD1 4HN, Scotland

[9] Univ Guelph, Dept Geog, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada

[10] Univ Maryland, Dept Geog, College Pk, MD 20742 USA

[11] Univ Leeds, Sch Earth & Environm, Sustainabil Res Inst, Leeds LS2 9JT, W Yorkshire, England

关键词: Participation;    Stakeholders;    Scenarios;    Futures;    Uplands;    United Kingdom;   

DOI  :  10.1016/j.jenvman.2013.05.016

来源: Elsevier

【 摘 要 】

A methodological framework is proposed for participatory scenario development on the basis of evidence from the literature, and is tested and refined through the development of scenarios for the future of UK uplands. The paper uses a review of previous work to justify a framework based around the following steps: i) define context and establish whether there is a basis for stakeholder engagement in scenario development; ii) systematically identify and represent relevant stakeholders in the process; iii) define clear objectives for scenario development with stakeholders including spatial and temporal boundaries; iv) select relevant participatory methods for scenario development, during initial scenario construction, evaluation and to support decision-making based on scenarios; and v) integrate local and scientific knowledge throughout the process. The application of this framework in case study research suggests that participatory scenario development has the potential to: i) make scenarios more relevant to stakeholder needs and priorities; ii) extend the range of scenarios developed; iii) develop more detailed and precise scenarios through the integration of local and scientific knowledge; and iv) move beyond scenario development to facilitate adaptation to future change. It is argued that participatory scenario development can empower stakeholders and lead to more consistent and robust scenarios that can help people prepare more effectively for future change. (C) 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

【 授权许可】

Free