Bayesian decision network modeling for environmental risk management: A wildfire case study

JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT

卷:270

Article

Penman, Trent D.¹  Cirulis, Brett¹  Marcot, Bruce G.² 

[1] Univ Melbourne, Sch Ecosyst & Forest Sci, 4 Water St, Creswick, Vic, Australia

[2] US Forest Serv, Pacific Northwest Res Stn, USDA, Portland, OR USA

关键词: Bayesian network;    Decision modeling;    Integrated modeling;    Monitoring;    Prescribed fire;    Risk;   

DOI  :  10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.110735

来源: Elsevier

【 摘 要 】

Environmental decision-making requires an understanding of complex interacting systems across scales of space and time. A range of statistical methods, evaluation frameworks and modeling approaches have been applied for conducting structured environmental decision-making under uncertainty. Bayesian Decision Networks (BDNs) are a useful construct for addressing uncertainties in environmental decision-making. In this paper, we apply a BDN to decisions regarding fire management to evaluate the general efficacy and utility of the approach in resource and environmental decision-making. The study was undertaken in south-eastern Australia to examine decisions about prescribed burning rates and locations based on treatment and impact costs. Least-cost solutions were identified but are unlikely to be socially acceptable or practical within existing resources; however, the statistical approach allowed for the identification of alternative, more practical solutions. BDNs provided a transparent and effective method for a multi-criteria decision analysis of environmental management problems.

【 授权许可】

Free