Mountain pine beetle outbreak duration and pine mortality depend on direct control effort

JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT

卷:260

Article

Kunegel-Lion, Melodie¹  Lewis, Mark A.^1,2 

[1] Univ Alberta, Dept Biol Sci, CW 405 Biol Sci Bldg, Edmonton, AB T6G 2E9, Canada

[2] Univ Alberta, Math & Stat Sci, 632 CAB, Edmonton, AB T6G 2G1, Canada

关键词: Insect epidemics;    Pest management;    Population modelling;    Simulations;    Direct control;   

DOI  :  10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.110167

来源: Elsevier

【 摘 要 】

The efficacy of direct control methods in bark beetle outbreaks is a disputed topic. While some studies report that control reduces tree mortality, others see little effect. Existing models, linking control rate to beetle population dynamics and tree infestations, give insights, but there is a need to take into account the environment spatial variability and its impact on beetle life cycle. Here, we use natural variability found in a carefully monitored and controlled infestation to simulate outbreak dynamics under different control effort and to explore the impact of control on outbreaks suppression and tree mortality. Our semi-empirical predictive model of the number of infested trees as a function of ecological and environmental variables is coupled to a simulation model for infestation dynamics. We show that even a little control can have a major impact on the number of infested trees after several years of sustained effort. However, a moderate control of 60% is required to reduce the beetle population on the long term. Furthermore, a control rate of 69%-83% is needed to achieve outbreak suppression in under 13 years depending on the abundance of incoming flights from outside sources.

【 授权许可】

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